Monday, December 24, 2018

I'll Have One Dip Buy, Please.

Greetings everyone. I hope you're all having a fabulous holiday week.

As I'm sure you are aware of, the S&P 500 is currently down 600 handles from the all time highs and this will very likely be the first year we close red since 2008.



Gulp. That's a pretty bad candle.

This is the daily chart:


I hope this is not ruining the holiday cheer for anyone, but if it is, here's the good news: 

There's a big opportunity here.

I know what play I want to make on the market. I want to buy into an extreme move and then sell it higher.  I specialize in short-term trading. Whatever money I missed out on not going all-in long indices or FANG 3 or 5 or 10 years ago, is the money I want to make in a few days or even a few hours. I may or may not actually execute a winning trade, because trading is difficult and you don't always get what you want nor do you always end up following your plan to a tee. I have no position at the moment.

Here is a list of things I don't care about as far as forming my trade thesis or constructing my entries and exits:

1. Trump's tweets
2. What the Fed is doing
3. Whether it's still a bull market with all-time highs ahead in the near future
4. Whether it's now a bear market and there are lower prices ahead in the near future
5. Whether everyone on Twitter is bullish and thus we "have to go lower"
6. Whether everyone on Twitter is bearish and thus "the bottom is in"
7. #4/5 except replace Twitter with CNBC or Retail Investors or Dennis Gartman, or anyone
8. Death crosses
9. Macro-economic data
10. Historical ratios like P/E or yield
11. Analyst price targets
12. Trade war or Tarifffs
13. Politics
14. "Why" we went up the last 9 years, whether because of QE manipulation or "real buying" or whatever popular narrative that's out there

There are some things on that list, namely #3 and #4, that I have some opinions about that might guide me in a different context but doesn't matter yet.

There is one thing I care about and it affects my risk tolerance and conviction level. It belies why I am interested in this trade at all.

U.S. equities have been in a centuries long uptrend and buying the dip is basically an undefeated trade. It has survived multiple World Wars, The Great Depression, The Cold War, Watergate, 9/11, 2008, and whatever else you can name. While most citizens of other countries view their stock market as gambling, buy and hold has become an American cultural phenomenon. There are "bigger forces" at play here that are not to be easily dismissed.

For the average investor, it will probably work out to buy at these levels. That being said, I don't want to be too early because I lack the patience to endure the potential years of drawdown in order to let this trade work out. Entries and exits will matter. Leverage and timing are either going to be my best friends or my worst enemies on this trade.

I see it like this. I see a rubber band. It's stretching a too far to the downside. At some point, it will release and go the other way just as violently, regardless of anything above. What happens after that--when the rubber band snaps back and then loses it stretch in either direction--is not something I need to know.

Merry Christmas and happy trading to all in 2019. One goal for 2019 will be to write more frequently.

December 26th Addendum:


I made one trade so far. A very modest day trade on a 3x ETF, far cry from the potential profit one could infer I wanted from the above post. Equivalent move on SPY was 236 to 240.


4:00pm update: ..well those exits were quite bad.

I might post other charts, I might not.

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  39. Happy I made a good decision, to approach 760PLUS CREDIT SCORE for my credit repairs and management, which today is the best decision to me and my family. 760PLUS HACKER is the fastest and most reliable hacker I’ve ever done business with and I suggest the hacker to any with same problem. He cleared all negative reports in my profile and increased my score to 795. I was surprised and still smiling the speed he used in completing the job (Two weeks and 5days). He’s dependable. Contact Him Via: 760PLUSCREDITSCORE@GMAIL.COM or text 1(304) -774 -5902.

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  40. Hello people, I am Bobby Green from Alabama. I feel very excited beginning the year 2020 with an excellent credit report unlike the other year. I was denied by FHA when I applied for a house here in Alabama due to my poor credit score. I got a lot of negatives such as charge offs, liens and IRS that ruined my life report. I contacted a Realtor on Reddit who then recommended XAP Credit Solution and furnished me with their contacts (XAPCREDITSOLUTION@GMAIL.COM or +1 (972) 597 9704), I can reliably say that XAP did more than I was expecting by boosting my score to 800s in less than 5 days. No more charge offs, liens or IRS on my report. XAP is genuine and reliable. Fix your credit report today with XAP and thank me afterwards.

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  41. Good to recommend 760PLUS CREDIT SCORE who you can reach out, for all your issues on FICO score, all thanks to Ryan and family that reviewed the good work of this HACKER on Credit Magic Forum. They can increase your score and clean your reports in 6 days as they did when I had credit problem. They give solutions to all credit issues and teach you the best practice to keep your credit line clean and credit worthy. Contact him via: 760PLUSCREDITSCORE@GMAIL.COM or text +1(304) -774 -5902.

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  42. If you’re looking to get your credit fixed I would recommend a reliable hacker to get in touch with Aaron Swartz. I was suffering from low FICO score 570 and was unable to meet up to my financial standard. He help me raise my FICO score to 820 excellent standard and He also clear all the hard inquiries on my report, clear the $85k on my credit cards within few days. He's affordable and always delivers good service.
    Here are his contact info; AaronSwartzCyberServices A T gmail {DOT} com, Cell #: +1(614) 344-8376.

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  43. Get A Blank ATM CARD And Cash Good Money/Funds Pay Your Debt directly today in any ATM machine around you anywhere in the world. contact cryptoatmhacker@gmail.com.. It's 100% guaranteed secure with no worries of being caught because the blank card it's already programmed and loaded with good funds in it, in such a way that's not traceable which also have a technique that makes it impossible for the CCTV to detect you, i am not a stupid man that i will come out to the public and start saying what someone have not done. For more info contact Mr john and also on how you are going to get your Card, Order yours today via Email: cryptoatmhacker@gmail.com

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    WhatsApp contact: +27733798090

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  44. Are you really in need of a perfect hacker to help you increase your credit score and delete all negative items on your report? CALCE JOHNSON is really good at his job and does all his work diligently.He help me remove hard inquiries and raise my credit score to 790 excellent score within few days and i was qualified..contact Him via "CALCEJOHNSONCYBER At Gmail Dot Com".

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  45. The question if hackers can change credit score has raised a lot of fear and anxiety over time, billions of dollars lost to sincere and fake hackers all over the world yearly, in the 70s, 80s and 90s witnessed the bit of all this programs and hackers tricks, human race today is faced with the problem of who to trust in hacking world but them we just got to trust, my lovely wife and I read good recommendations online about this HACKER 760PLUS CREDIT SCORE especially the one said by RYAN HAVILA, my wife insisted we give him a try, I contacted him, and we had a deal after I made some initial commitment, within 72hours from when we entered a deal, I got a mail informing me that my Equifax is increased by 200 points, Transunion 160, and Experian 225 points. My credit score increased from 405 to 810, surprised on how my application for AMX card to increase my score that was declined became approved because my FICO score with Experian that was low in January, 2020 is now increased from 531 to 766.Write him on :760PLUSCREDITSCORE@GMAIL.COM or text +1(304) -774 -5902.

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  46. Honestly getting a good credit score these days is like getting a raw refined Gold as the case may be. Though I must convey my appreciation for your generosity supporting men and women that absolutely need solution to their low Credit Score and poor Credit Profile. XAP special commitment, experience and expertise to increasing a low Credit Score and cleaning up bad or negative items, appears to be amazingly productive and has in every case encouraged professionals like me to realize their goals. XAP brought my Credit Profile up top speed, increased my Credit Score from a low 498 to a high 811 and as a result, I am qualified for everything. Thanks a ton from every member of my family. Deep down in my heart, I'm highly recommending XAPCREDITSOLUTION @ GMAIL COM, or Text him on +1 (972) 597 9704 to anyone who requires help with their credit profile, and consider yourself lucky if they replies your mail or text; because they got a lot to offer in his data base. Remember to stay safe.

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  47. Honestly getting a good credit score these days is like getting a raw refined Gold as the case may be. Though I must convey my appreciation for your generosity supporting men and women that absolutely need solution to their low Credit Score and poor Credit Profile. XAP special commitment, experience and expertise to increasing a low Credit Score and cleaning up bad or negative items, appears to be amazingly productive and has in every case encouraged professionals like me to realize their goals. XAP brought my Credit Profile up top speed, increased my Credit Score from a low 498 to a high 811 and as a result, I am qualified for everything. Thanks a ton from every member of my family. Deep down in my heart, I'm highly recommending XAPCREDITSOLUTION @ GMAIL ⏺ COM, or Text him on +1 (972) 597 9704 to anyone who requires help with their credit profile, and consider yourself lucky if they replies your mail or text; because they got a lot to offer in his data base. Remember to stay safe.

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  48. Thank you Aaron Swartz for all your help. I got a new credit card limit the sum of $15k with positive tradeline on my credit report within few days. He also help me raise my credit score over 200 point and He make sure he delete all negative items on my credit profile. He made my life better and easy without no regrets after working with him. I’ve been able to get the mortgage loan and that has being my dream. AaronSwartzCyberServices A T gmail {DOT} com

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  49. Are you in need of a hacker to help you increase your credit score and delete all negative items on your report? Use this time our people and nation are faced with the challenge of Govid19 (Coronavirus) stay at home/ restriction to increase your credit Score ahead of the war against mankind, we must support each other and assist where necessary to share any information that may help the next person, I strongly recommend this great hacker called 760PLUS CREDIT SCORE who fixed my 3 credit bureaus within a short period of time (2days). The hack was done as he promised and my score was raised to 820. He deleted the negative collection items on my report and helped me pay off my credit card debts within 48 Hours. His services are cheap and affordable especially now that he said they must help to ensure clients are happy and financially stable .Contact him for help today via 760PLUSCREDITSCORE@GMAIL.COM or text +1(304) -774 -5902.

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  50. I had a bad credit score and needed to increase my score, I was introduced to an ethical hacker named CALCE JOHNSON. He help me increase my credit score to 800 plus and pay my debt a sum of $25,000 within a very short period of time without traces, He is Affordable and legit. Contact him for your credit issue "CALCEJOHNSONCYBER At Gmail Dot Com".

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  51. Hello, are you in need of hacking services? Then contact DEBOOTHCREDITSOLUTION@GMAIL.COM or text +1(562) 281-7621. He is a sincere hacker that starts his deal with full proof as he did for me by increasing my credit score from 405 to 800. If you need to *hack into email accounts, *all social media accounts, *school database to clear or change grades, *bank accounts, *company records and systems, *DUIs He is really the best. His services are affordable. Don't waste your time with fake hackers + Credit cards hacker + drop money into bank accounts. + credit score hack + blank credit card sale + Hack and use Credit Card to shop online + Monitor any phone and email address + Tap into anybody's call and monitor their conversation.

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  52. If you ever need any credit assistance of an experienced hacker to help with repairing of bad credit, recovery of facebook account and all other social media accounts, breaking into a database , unlocking of iCloud , change of grades and any form of security breach, Adrian Lamo is the one to call on so you can reach him via ADRIANLAMOCYBEREXPERT@GMAIL.COM or Cell Number: (320) 281-9397

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  53. If you ever need any credit assistance of an experienced hacker to help with repairing of bad credit, recovery of facebook account and all other social media accounts, breaking into a database , unlocking of iCloud , change of grades and any form of security breach, Adrian Lamo is the one to call on so you can reach him via ADRIANLAMOCYBEREXPERT@GMAIL.COM or Cell Number: (320) 281-9397

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